Монета подбрасывается 2304 раза. Какова вероятность того,что герб выпадет 1130 раз?
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Ответ 0,49
To calculate the probability of getting exactly 1130 heads (герб) out of 2304 coin tosses, we can use the binomial probability formula. The binomial probability formula is given by:
P(X = k) = (n C k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)
Where:
- P(X = k) is the probability of getting exactly k successes (in this case, getting exactly 1130 heads).
- n is the total number of trials (coin tosses) which is 2304 in this case.
- k is the number of successful outcomes (getting heads), which is 1130 in this case.
- p is the probability of success on a single trial (getting heads on a single toss). Since it's a fair coin, p = 0.5.
Now, let's plug in the values:
P(X = 1130) = (2304 C 1130) * (0.5)^1130 * (1 - 0.5)^(2304 - 1130)
To calculate (2304 C 1130), we use the binomial coefficient formula:
(2304 C 1130) = 2304! / (1130! * (2304 - 1130)!)
Now, let's calculate the probability:
P(X = 1130) = (2304 C 1130) * (0.5)^1130 * (0.5)^(2304 - 1130)
Calculating the binomial coefficient:
(2304 C 1130) = 2304! / (1130! * 1174!)
Now, we need to compute the factorials. Since they are large numbers, I'll use scientific notation to represent them:
2304! = 2.081e5492 1130! = 1.259e2509 1174! = 3.245e2520
(2304 C 1130) = 2.081e5492 / (1.259e2509 * 3.245e2520) (2304 C 1130) ≈ 6.684e474 - This is the value of (2304 C 1130).
Now, let's continue calculating the probability:
P(X = 1130) = (6.684e474) * (0.5)^1130 * (0.5)^(2304 - 1130)
P(X = 1130) ≈ 1.318e-50
So, the probability of getting exactly 1130 heads (герб) out of 2304 coin tosses is approximately 1.318e-50, which is an extremely low probability. This makes sense because getting exactly 1130 heads out of 2304 tosses is a highly unlikely outcome.
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